resolved · Earned
Tullow’s November 2009 operational update forecast Jubilee first oil in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.
Tullow Oil
Operator of Ghana’s Jubilee field · Ghana
The world at the time.
The company reported development wells drilled within prognosis and facilities fabrication on schedule. The project compressed the discovery-to-production period to roughly three and a half years.
What happened.
Production from Jubilee commenced on November 28, 2010, within the forecast quarter. The field was inaugurated on December 15, and final costs were expected within 5% of the original budget.
Predicted vs actual.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Variance / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| First oil | Q4 2010 | 2010-11-28 production start; 2010-12-15 inauguration | Within forecast quarter |
The counter-signal.
The July 2009 development approval showed the project still depended on FPSO and subsea facilities under construction. Their international fabrication and offshore integration made first oil an execution-dependent milestone rather than a certainty.
Verdict.
Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right
The quarter-specific first-oil forecast was met. This card does not score later plateau-production promises or broader economic benefits.
Cause of death / explanatory lens.
No cause of death assigned
The lesson.
Which observable construction milestones make an aggressive commissioning date credible?
Sources.
- Tullow November 2009 interim statementprimary · 2009-11-11 · claim/date and reasoning
- Tullow 2010 Annual Reportprimary · 2011 · exact production start and inauguration
- First oil scheduled for December 15primary · 2010-11-29 · commissioning and event date
- Jubilee development plan approvedprimary · 2009-07-15 · contemporary execution dependencies
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