Make a probability forecast before you see the outcome. Your estimates stay on this device unless you export them.
15 source-linked forecasts await resolution. The archive is a dated snapshot. Outcomes are resolved by an editorial evidence check, not automatically when a clock runs out. Anonymous visitor averages are shown when submissions exist. Sharing is optional; the saved forecast remains on this device. Account sync is not enabled.
Resolving within 90 days.
No forecasts in this collection have a due date within the next 90 days of the research cutoff.
Due 2027-12-31 · quantitative forecast
Over 40% of agentic AI projects will have been cancelled by the end of 2027.
Gartner · Made 2025-06-25
Resolution criteria
Compare the cancelled-project proportion at year-end 2027 with the strict >40% threshold, using Gartner’s original project population and agentic-AI definition. If that denominator is not disclosed, retain an unresolved result rather than infer a population from anecdotes.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2027-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
Global coal demand will level off near 8.87 billion tonnes in 2027.
International Energy Agency · Made 2024-12-18
Resolution criteria
Compare global calendar-2027 coal demand, across coal grades and uses, with 8.87 billion tonnes and report the signed numerical error. Use the 2024 report’s definitions and current-policy scenario; coal-fired electricity alone is not total coal demand.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2027-12-31 · quantitative forecast
Global solar-PV electricity generation will surpass wind generation in 2027.
International Energy Agency · Made 2024-10-09
Resolution criteria
Compare worldwide calendar-2027 solar-PV generation in TWh with total wind generation in TWh; success requires solar PV > wind. Installed capacity alone does not resolve this generation claim.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2028-12-31 · quantitative forecast
At least 15% of day-to-day work decisions will be made autonomously through agentic AI by 2028.
Gartner · Made 2025-06-25
Resolution criteria
Test whether the measured share of day-to-day work decisions made autonomously by agentic AI is >=15% by year-end 2028. Preserve Gartner’s decision and autonomy definitions; assisted decisions do not satisfy an autonomous-decision claim.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2028-12-31 · quantitative forecast
33% of enterprise software applications will include agentic AI by 2028.
Gartner · Made 2025-06-25
Resolution criteria
Record the year-end 2028 proportion of enterprise software applications including agentic AI and its percentage-point difference from 33%. Use the source’s application population and agentic classification; unavailable comparable measurement leaves the claim unresolved.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2028-12-31 · quantitative forecast
Worldwide artificial-intelligence spending will exceed US$631 billion by 2028.
International Data Corporation · Made 2024-08-21
Resolution criteria
Compare calendar-2028 worldwide AI spending with the strict US$631-billion threshold, using IDC’s 2024 V2 Spending Guide categories and currency basis. Later methodology changes require a bridge to that scope; a different definition of the AI market does not independently resolve the claim.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2029-12-31 · quantitative forecast
10% of global boards will use AI guidance to challenge materially important executive decisions by 2029.
Gartner · Made 2025-06-17
Resolution criteria
Measure the 2029 share of boards actually using AI guidance to challenge material executive decisions and report deviation from 10%. General AI discussion or procurement is insufficient; use a comparable board survey and the source’s materiality definition.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2029-12-31 · probabilistic forecast
There is a 70% probability that mean global warming over 2025–2029 exceeds 1.5°C above 1850–1900.
World Meteorological Organization / UK Met Office · Made 2025-05-28
Resolution criteria
Compute the average global near-surface temperature anomaly for the five calendar years 2025–2029 against the 1850–1900 baseline; the event occurs only if the five-year average is >1.5°C. Record this as one outcome of a 70% probabilistic forecast, not as a deterministic promise or a long-term Paris-threshold crossing.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2029-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
Global public debt will reach 100% of global GDP by 2029.
International Monetary Fund · Made 2026-04-15
Resolution criteria
Compare the IMF Fiscal Monitor global gross public-debt-to-GDP aggregate through 2029 with 100%, keeping its country coverage and aggregation convention. Record whether the threshold is reached and the 2029 percentage-point error; net debt or private debt does not resolve this claim.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2029-12-31 · quantitative forecast
Global solar-PV electricity generation will surpass hydropower in 2029.
International Energy Agency · Made 2024-10-09
Resolution criteria
Compare worldwide calendar-2029 solar-PV generation in TWh with hydropower generation in TWh; success requires solar PV > hydropower. Use generation rather than installed capacity.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2030-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
Electric cars will exceed 40% of worldwide new-car sales in 2030 under the 2025 policy settings.
International Energy Agency · Made 2025-05-14
Resolution criteria
Divide global 2030 battery-electric plus plug-in-hybrid car sales by total new-car sales using IEA categories; test the >40% threshold. Record subsequent policy changes separately because this is a stated-policy conditional projection.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2030-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
World oil demand will plateau near 105.5 million barrels per day by 2030, with a small decline that year.
International Energy Agency · Made 2025-06-17
Resolution criteria
Compare IEA-defined total liquids demand in calendar 2030 with 105.5 mb/d at 0.1-mb/d precision, and separately test whether 2030 demand is below 2029 demand. The point estimate and directional decline are two explicit parts; do not substitute production capacity.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2030-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
World oil production capacity will rise to 114.7 million barrels per day in 2030.
International Energy Agency · Made 2025-06-17
Resolution criteria
Compare IEA-defined global oil production capacity at the 2030 forecast endpoint with 114.7 mb/d and report numerical error at 0.1-mb/d precision. Capacity includes the report’s liquids categories and is distinct from actual output, demand or refinery throughput.
Oil 2025 publicationprimary · 2025-06-17 · forecast, metric and publication date
Visitor average: loading…
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2030-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
Renewables will supply 46% of global electricity generation in 2030 in the main forecast.
International Energy Agency · Made 2024-10-09
Resolution criteria
Divide renewable global electricity generation by all global generation for calendar 2030; compare with 46% at the reported whole-percentage-point precision. Evaluate the main forecast, keeping later policy revisions separate.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Due 2030-12-31 · conditional quantitative projection
Current prospects imply 512 million people, about 6% of humanity, will be chronically undernourished in 2030.
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO · Made 2025-07-28
Resolution criteria
Compare the FAO prevalence-of-undernourishment model’s 2030 global headcount with 512 million and record error, preserving the 2025 methodology or publishing a revision bridge. This is the current-prospects projection, not the Zero Hunger policy target; food insecurity survey measures are a different outcome.
One current shared estimate per browser and forecast. Sharing updates the visitor average.
Your calibration.
A Brier score needs a resolved outcome. Your saved probabilities will appear here when the archive contains a supported binary resolution. No resolved personal forecasts yet.
Brier score = (probability − outcome)², with probability from 0 to 1 and outcome 0 or 1. Lower is better. Calibration groups forecasts by predicted probability and compares that with observed frequency.