The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / Union Cabinet of India

early · Unscored / disputed

India’s Cabinet committed to 100 GW of installed solar capacity by 2022, including 40 GW of rooftop installations.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

Union Cabinet of India
Government setting the National Solar Mission target · India

Made: 2015-06-17Resolved: 2025-01-31
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating Right direction, wrong timing
Right direction, wrong timing. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

The Cabinet increased the previous solar target fivefold and outlined subsidies and investment needs. This was an aspirational policy target rather than a probability forecast.

Cabinet revision of National Solar Mission targetsSolar capacity reaches 64,380 MWIndia surpasses 100 GW solar capacityDo India’s Renewable Energy Targets Make Sense?Rooftop programme extension and implementation problems

What happened.

The country still had only 64.38 GW on February 28, 2023, after the target year. It crossed 100 GW in January 2025, reaching 100.33 GW on January 31.

India surpasses 100 GW solar capacity

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Installed solar capacity100 GW by 202264.38 GW on 2023-02-28; 100.33 GW on 2025-01-31At least 35.62 GW short just after target year; threshold reached in 2025
India surpasses 100 GW solar capacity

The counter-signal.

In March 2015, Varun Sivaram argued that financing risks, stalled projects and grid limitations made 100 GW by 2022 unrealistic. That objection was available before formal Cabinet approval.

Do India’s Renewable Energy Targets Make Sense?

Verdict.

Reasoning: contested · Outcome: wrong

The date failed even though the capacity milestone later arrived. Early refers to an eventual milestone, and does not erase the original deadline miss or convert a target into a calibrated forecast.

Original policy target clearly labeled. February 2023 capacity is used as conservative proof the 2022 threshold was missed; no unverified December number is presented.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

Right direction, wrong timing

The lesson.

How should an ambitious capacity target account for bottlenecks in the slowest deployment channel?

Sources.

  1. Cabinet revision of National Solar Mission targetsprimary · 2015-06-17 · claim/date
  2. Solar capacity reaches 64,380 MWprimary · 2023-03-16 · missed deadline evidence
  3. India surpasses 100 GW solar capacityprimary · 2025-02-07 · eventual outcome
  4. Do India’s Renewable Energy Targets Make Sense?primary analysis · 2015-03-11 · contemporary counter-signal
  5. Rooftop programme extension and implementation problemsprimary · 2022-12 · causal implementation evidence

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