The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / Kenya Meteorological Department

resolved · Earned

Kenya’s meteorological service forecast enhanced October–December 2023 rainfall across the country, with higher probabilities in the east.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

Kenya Meteorological Department
National weather service · Kenya

Made: 2023-08-30Resolved: 2023-12-31
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating No cause of death assigned
Reasoning and outcomes. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

The outlook used warm Pacific sea temperatures and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole as its main drivers. It included regional probabilities rather than a single promised rainfall total.

OND 2023 seasonal forecastState of the Climate in Kenya 2023KMD director cautions on El Niño strengthGovernment intensifies disaster response

What happened.

KMD’s climate review records enhanced short rains and widespread flooding in late 2023. Above-normal precipitation affected many areas, with substantial regional and timing variation.

State of the Climate in Kenya 2023Government intensifies disaster response

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
OND seasonal rainfall directionEnhanced rainfall, especially eastern zoneEnhanced rainfall and floods; spatial and onset variationDirection matched; local distribution not scored numerically
State of the Climate in Kenya 2023Government intensifies disaster response

The counter-signal.

A May 2023 statement by KMD’s director warned that strong El Niño does not guarantee rain comparable with 1997. The 2015 precedent showed that other drivers could moderate the local outcome.

KMD director cautions on El Niño strength

Verdict.

Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right

The broad wet-season direction was right. This rating does not assert that every locality received the predicted distribution or that the exact flood magnitude was forecast.

Forecast PDF issue date verified. Outcome report is retrospective; no numerical all-country rainfall anomaly invented.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

No cause of death assigned

The lesson.

How can a regional seasonal forecast preserve its uncertainty when public debate focuses on a single climate label?

Sources.

  1. OND 2023 seasonal forecastprimary · 2023-08-30 · claim/date/method
  2. State of the Climate in Kenya 2023primary · Date not established · outcome
  3. KMD director cautions on El Niño strengthcontemporary reporting of official statement · 2023-05-18 · counter-signal
  4. Government intensifies disaster responseprimary · 2023-11-25 · flood outcome corroboration

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