The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / Bank of Korea

resolved · Honourable Graves

Economic forecast: South Korea's real GDP would grow 4.6% in 2010.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

Bank of Korea
Central bank research department · South Korea

Made: 2009-12-11Resolved: 2012-03-30
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating No cause of death assigned
Reasoning and outcomes. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

The Bank of Korea expected growth to recover after the financial crisis, with private demand gradually replacing emergency policy support. Its December 2009 numerical forecast was a baseline estimate, not a claim that the recovery had no uncertainty.

Bank of Korea Press Release: Economic Outlook for 20102010 National Accounts, finalizedEconomic Outlook for 2010, revisedEconomic growth forecast briefing

What happened.

The Bank's March 2012 finalized national accounts reported 2010 real GDP growth of 6.3%. The original forecast got the recovery direction right but underestimated the selected actual by 1.7 percentage points.

2010 National Accounts, finalized

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Real GDP growth in 2010+4.6%+6.3% in March 2012 finalized accounts+1.7 percentage points
2010 National Accounts, finalized

The counter-signal.

By April 2010, the Bank had raised its forecast to 5.2%, citing stronger exports, domestic demand and global recovery. That pre-endpoint revision provided a concrete signal that the original estimate was already too conservative.

Economic Outlook for 2010, revisedEconomic growth forecast briefing

Verdict.

Reasoning: sound · Outcome: wrong

The precise growth forecast failed on the chosen official vintage despite a correct positive-growth direction. The transparent economic framework and updating behavior support an honourable rather than a foolish-failure judgment.

Original release is available as an explicitly attributed BOK press-release reprint; primary April revision and outcome independently corroborate original 4.6% and eventual result. The selected actual is 6.3% in the 2012 finalized vintage, not 6.2% preliminary or later rebased numbers.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

No cause of death assigned

The lesson.

When new evidence arrives, can you update visibly without erasing the original forecast?

Sources.

  1. Bank of Korea Press Release: Economic Outlook for 2010central-bank press-release reprint · 2009-12-11 · claim and reasoning
  2. 2010 National Accounts, finalizedprimary statistical release · 2012-03-30 · outcome
  3. Economic Outlook for 2010, revisedprimary central-bank release · 2010-04-12 · counter_signal
  4. Economic growth forecast briefingprimary government briefing · 2010-04-13 · 5.2% counter-signal corroboration

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