resolved · Unscored / disputed
“tens of thousands by the end of the parliament”
Theresa May
UK Home Secretary · United Kingdom
The world at the time.
May cited falling visa counts and a recent reduction in net migration as evidence that the government’s measures were working. The target covered net migration, which includes emigration and categories beyond capped work visas.
What happened.
ONS estimated net migration of 330,000 in the year ending March 2015. The historical estimate was far above the implied target ceiling of fewer than 100,000.
Predicted vs actual.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Variance / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual net migration, year ending March 2015 | Fewer than 100,000 | 330,000 in contemporary ONS estimate | At least 230,000 above threshold |
The counter-signal.
A parliamentary statistics inquiry warned in 2013 that migration estimates were too uncertain for precise target measurement. The target also concerned the net balance, so a fall in selected visa categories could not establish that the whole aggregate would fall.
Verdict.
Reasoning: contested · Outcome: wrong
The deadline target was missed by a large margin under the contemporary data vintage. Measurement changes may revise the exact figure but do not justify treating this commitment as achieved.
Cause of death / explanatory lens.
No cause of death assigned
The lesson.
Does the government control all flows inside the metric it has promised to change?
Sources.
- An immigration system that works in the national interestprimary · 2012-12-12 · claim
- Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015primary · 2015-08-27 · outcome
- Migration statistics inquiry reportprimary · 2013 · counter_signal
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