The Prediction Graveyard
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The Graveyard / William Miller

resolved · Deserved Graves

William Miller forecast the literal Second Coming of Christ about 1843; later followers adopted October 22, 1844.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

William Miller
Baptist lay preacher · United States

Made: 1836Resolved: 1844-10-22
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating Ideology over evidence
Ideology over evidence. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

Miller converted the prophetic days in Daniel into historical years and calculated a near-term return of Christ. His 1836 book explicitly advertised an event about 1843.

Evidence from Scripture and History of the Second Coming of Christ about the Year 1843John Dowling: An Exposition of the PropheciesSamuel Sheffield SnowOur History

What happened.

The expected public Second Coming did not occur in the original window or on the later October 1844 date. The latter failure became the Great Disappointment, followed by doctrinal reinterpretation and organizational change.

Samuel Sheffield SnowOur History

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Literal Second ComingAbout 1843; revised movement date October 22, 1844Did not occur on those datesForecast windows missed
Samuel Sheffield SnowOur History

The counter-signal.

Baptist pastor John Dowling published a detailed rebuttal in 1840, contesting the scriptural foundation for fixing the date. His criticism existed before both forecast deadlines and addressed the interpretation rather than merely ridiculing followers.

John Dowling: An Exposition of the Prophecies

Verdict.

Reasoning: poor · Outcome: wrong

This verdict concerns a specified, observable return on Earth, rather than adjudicating religious belief generally. Miller did not originate the exact October 22 date, so it must not be presented as his initial 1836 wording.

Original book title verifies approximate 1843 claim; no original passage quoted. Exact October 22 date originated with Samuel Snow and was accepted later by Miller; date_made is year-only.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

Ideology over evidence

The lesson.

When a deadline fails, are we revising the model or redefining the event?

Sources.

  1. Evidence from Scripture and History of the Second Coming of Christ about the Year 1843primary · 1836 · claim and publication date
  2. John Dowling: An Exposition of the Propheciesprimary · 1840 · contemporary counter-signal
  3. Samuel Sheffield Snowinstitutional history · 2022 · date attribution and outcome
  4. Our Historyinstitutional history · Date not established · outcome

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