The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / Somalia IPC Technical Working Group and Famine Review Committee

resolved · Unscored / disputed

IPC projected famine in Baidoa and Burhakaba and among displaced people in Baidoa for October–December 2022 under assumed assistance levels.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

Somalia IPC Technical Working Group and Famine Review Committee
Multi-agency food-security analysis and independent review · Somalia

Made: 2022-09-12Resolved: 2022-12-31
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating No cause of death assigned
Reasoning and outcomes. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

Four failed rainy seasons, high food prices and alarming malnutrition supported a severe warning. The analysis explicitly accounted for planned aid and anticipated inadequate funding later in the year.

Somalia July–September situation and October–December projectionSomalia December 2022 IPC updateWFP assistance reaches unprecedented levelsIPC Famine Review Somalia December 2022

What happened.

The December IPC update said the targeted areas had not reached area-level IPC Phase 5 Famine in October–December. Catastrophic household hunger, displacement and excess deaths nevertheless continued.

Somalia December 2022 IPC update

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Area-level IPC Phase 5 FamineProjected in specified Bay-region populations in Oct–Dec 2022Area-level Famine thresholds not reached; catastrophic hunger persistedAid assumptions changed; outcome scoring contested
Somalia December 2022 IPC update

The counter-signal.

WFP reported record assistance and plans to expand it on September 5, before the formal IPC release. That ongoing response was a concrete mechanism capable of altering the assumed scenario.

WFP assistance reaches unprecedented levels

Verdict.

Reasoning: sound · Outcome: contested

The famine scenario was averted rather than cleanly falsified under unchanged conditions. Household Catastrophe and area-level Famine are distinct classifications, so their numbers are not conflated.

Projection was conditional on planned/funded assistance, rainfall, prices and disease. December report explicitly says scenario did not materialize in all parts; contested rating is deliberate, with no forced quadrant.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

No cause of death assigned

The lesson.

How can forecasters distinguish a warning’s conditional accuracy from the observed success of prevention?

Sources.

  1. Somalia July–September situation and October–December projectionprimary · 2022-09-12 · claim/date/conditions
  2. Somalia December 2022 IPC updateprimary · 2022-12-13 · outcome
  3. WFP assistance reaches unprecedented levelsprimary · 2022-09-05 · contemporary counter-signal
  4. IPC Famine Review Somalia December 2022primary · 2022-12 · scenario change and causal explanation

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