The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / Sri Lanka Anti-Malaria Campaign

resolved · Earned

Sri Lanka’s 2009 Malaria Elimination Project aimed to eliminate indigenous malaria by 2014.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

Sri Lanka Anti-Malaria Campaign
National disease-control programme · Sri Lanka

Made: 2009Resolved: 2014-12-31
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating No cause of death assigned
Reasoning and outcomes. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

The programme launched after the armed conflict ended and after a large decline in malaria. Its elimination strategy combined surveillance, vector control and targeted treatment.

History of Anti-Malaria CampaignWHO certifies Sri Lanka malaria-freeProgress towards elimination in Sri LankaWorld Malaria Day Sri LankaMalaria Control and Elimination in Sri Lanka

What happened.

The last indigenous case was reported in October 2012, ahead of the 2014 target. WHO certified the country malaria-free in September 2016 after the required period of interrupted transmission.

WHO certifies Sri Lanka malaria-freeWorld Malaria Day Sri Lanka

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Last indigenous malaria caseElimination by end-2014October 2012; certified 2016-09-05Transmission interrupted about two years before target
WHO certifies Sri Lanka malaria-freeWorld Malaria Day Sri Lanka

The counter-signal.

WHO’s 2012 case study documented continuing imported cases and receptive areas capable of sustaining transmission. These were real threats to both achieving and maintaining elimination during the target period.

Progress towards elimination in Sri Lanka

Verdict.

Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right

The elimination target was met ahead of schedule. Formal certification in 2016 is a separate verification milestone and is not counted as a missed 2014 deadline.

Only year of 2009 launch is verified. Original programme target is corroborated by AMC and WHO retrospectives; 2012 case-study date precedes the end-2014 horizon.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

No cause of death assigned

The lesson.

How can a programme reach zero transmission while continuing to defend against imported infections?

Sources.

  1. History of Anti-Malaria Campaignprimary · Date not established · official retrospective claim/date
  2. WHO certifies Sri Lanka malaria-freeprimary · 2016-09-05 · outcome
  3. Progress towards elimination in Sri Lankaprimary · 2012-10-18 · contemporary counter-signal
  4. World Malaria Day Sri Lankaprimary · 2024-04-25 · confirms end-2014 target and early outcome
  5. Malaria Control and Elimination in Sri Lankaprimary research · 2012-09 · contemporary target corroboration

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