resolved · Earned
“at least 48 medals from at least 12 sports”
UK Sport
National high-performance sports funding agency · United Kingdom
The world at the time.
UK Sport aggregated sport-level assessments into a 40–70 medal range. The minimum and ranking goals were tied to sustained investment and monitored athlete performance.
What happened.
Team GB won 65 medals across 17 sports and finished third in the medal table. All three headline thresholds were achieved.
Predicted vs actual.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Variance / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic medals | At least 48; range 40–70 | 65 | +17 against minimum; within range |
| Medalling sports | At least 12 | 17 | +5 |
| Medal-table position | Top 4 | 3rd | 1 place better than threshold |
Forecast and observation.
| Reported measure | medals |
|---|---|
| Minimum target | 48 |
| Actual | 65 |
London 2012 medal tally (medals). Bars compare sourced endpoints. Statistical vintages and scope are explained above.
The counter-signal.
In March 2012, 13 of the 28 assessed Olympic sports remained amber rather than green. That assessment showed substantial execution uncertainty even within a broadly improving program.
Verdict.
Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right
The target forecast was achieved and the outcome lay within the published range. Funding plausibly supported the result, but the card does not estimate its causal contribution separately from athlete quality and home advantage.
Cause of death / explanatory lens.
No cause of death assigned
The lesson.
Can a range and explicit minimum make a performance forecast easier to audit?
Sources.
- UK Sport confirms Top Four ambition for Home Gamesprimary · 2012-07-04 · claim
- Mission accomplished as GB Olympic team hit UK Sport targetsprimary · 2012-08-14 · outcome
- Mission gives green light for Home Games successprimary · 2012-03-29 · counter_signal
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